How Islamic will Europe be in 50 years?

1. Current, Europe-residing population:

a. estimated population of Europe:
737 million

b. estimated Muslim population:
56 million

c. estimated non-Muslim population (a-b)
681 million

d. birthrate in Europe:
d1. around 2.2/per woman Muslim
d2. around 1.5/per woman non-Muslim


With ZERO IMMIGRATION GROWTH,Without COUNTING UNREGISTERED IMMIGRANTS:



2016 next generation children of their children
Muslim    56 million   (b)    62 million    [(b/2) * d1] 68.2 million
non-Muslim    681 million   (c)    510 million    [(c/2) * d2] 382 million




The Muslims living in the EU are currently 8% of the population. In two generations, they would constitute just 17% of Europe's population. Taking immigration into consideration, however, paints a different picture.

In 2015, 4.7 million immigrants from outside the European Union came to the European Union. Among them, 1.3 million were asylum seekers. In 2012, long before the huge wave of immigration, 39% of those born outside of the EU who resettled in the EU were Muslim. At first, one might be inclined to say that 39% appears outdated and the rate of Muslim immigration has since increased. Because the leading countries for migrants to the EU in 2015 were Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Gambia and Pakistan, all Muslim majority countries, one might conclude that the migrants from these states were predominantly Muslim too, since the general population is fleeing. On the other hand, the oppression against minority religious groups in these Muslim majority countries may have increased, in part due to the rise of Islamic extremism. And so, it becomes difficult to ascertain what percentage of the migrants to Europe per year are Muslim and it is perhaps best to simply stick with the in-between, 39% figure rather than overcompensate based on perception.

Assuming 39% of the 4.7 million immigrants were Muslim, there were 1.8 million Muslim migrants per year. The next factor to consider is what percentage were female. After all, we cannot simply assume, as we did with the EU itself, that half the population is male and half is female. Migrants to the EU are predominantly young men and  only around 25% of the immigrants were female in 2015. Taking these points into consideration and assuming all of these ratios remain constant, we can expect about 450,000 Muslim females entering the EU per year.

Now for the real leap of faith, which is actually going to reduce our final sum dramatically. Taking 450,000 million females out of the refugee pool, we are left with 1.35 million men who we must assume at some point are likely to be part of some equation somewhere that will bring children into the world. Since the 450,000 million female figure exists in a bubble outside of the figures taken into account when calculating the total birth rate of the already-settled populations, we could fairly pair the 450,000 million females with 450,000 males, reducing our 1.35 million men who are unaccounted for down to 900,000 men. Surely, these men will contribute in some way to the overall demographic of the country they are entering. But, because it is not clear how, we will add them to the overall calculation simply as an external, isolated variable, adding up to 22.5 million men over 25 years.



2. Muslim immigrants:

a. by next generation (2042):
     62 million  (estimated Muslims based on Europe's current population)
  25 million Muslim migrants' children [(450,000 females * d1) each yr for 25 yrs]
     87 million total Muslims in Europe (excludes impact of 22.5 million Muslim men, see description)

b. when their children have children (2067):
     68.2 million (pop. of Muslims based on Europe's current population)
          i. est. Muslim children born in Europe to Muslim immigrants:
     27 million [(25 million /2) * d1]
          ii. est. impact of the next immigrant wave at that time:
 +  25 million Muslim migrants' children [(450,000 females *d1) for 25 yrs]
    120 million total Muslims in Europe (excludes impact of 45 million Muslim men, see description)



Now, the immigration figures for Europe must be adjusted to reflect that 61% of migrants were non-Muslim. The result: 2.8 million non-Muslim migrants per year. Assuming that only 25% are female, we are looking at 700,000 female non-Muslim immigrants per year. Thus, we have our calculations, with the impact of 1.4 million non-Muslim uncalculated men arriving every year for 25 years to total 35 million non-Muslim men, another independent variable.



3. non-Muslims:

a. by next generation (2042):
       510   million  (est. non-Muslims in Europe based on current population)
 +     26.2 million  [(700,000 non-Muslim migrants *d1) each yr for 25 yrs]
      536.2 million total non-Muslims in Europe (excludes impact of 35 million non-Muslim men, see description)

So, let's calculate the big one: the population after fifty years of time where it is maintained that only 39% of migrants were Muslim. Again, that means 61% of 4.7m were non-Muslim, totaling 2.8 million non-Muslim migrants per year. Assuming the immigration rate remains constant, the net non-Muslim immigration rate for fifty years adds up to 140 million non-Muslim migrants. Now, assuming 25% are female - 35 million - and give birth at the same, non-Muslim rate of around 1.5 children per woman, there are 52.5 non-Muslim immigrants added to the EU population after 50 years. In conclusion, 52.5 non-Muslim immigrants might also be added. Thus, the demographic figure, accounting for immigration, could be as follows:

b. when their children have children (2067):
     382 million (est. non-Muslim population based on Europe's current population )
            i. est non-Muslim children born in Europe to non-Muslim migrants:
     19.5 million [(26.5 million /2) * d2]
            ii. est. impact of the next immigrant wave at that time:
 +  26.2 million Non-Muslim migrants' children [(700,000 females *d1) for 25 more yrs]
     427.7 million total non-Muslims in Europe (excludes impact of 70 million Non-Muslim men, see description)



4. Conclusion:

a. by next generation (twenty-five years' time, 2042):
87 million of Europe's 623 million citizens are Muslim (13.9%) (2a of 2a+3a)
(as before, this figure excludes the impact of millions of men. Not just 22.5 million Muslim men, but 35 million non-Muslim men)
 
b. when their children have children (fifty years' time, 2067):
120 million of Europe's
547 million citizens are Muslim (22%)  (2b of 2b+3b)

(as before, this figure excludes the impact of millions of men. Not just two generations of 22.5 million Muslim men, but two generations of 35 million non-Muslim men)


5. Comparison:

Here are the projections from a Pew Research Center study, dated 2010, which found 10.2% of Europe's projected population of 696.3 million for 2050 would be Muslim. This only seems to confirm the estimates calculated above because, in 2010, the surge of migrants from the Middle East had yet to begin. Moreover, in our 623 million figure for 2042, the impact of 22.5 million Muslim immigrant men and 35 million non-Muslim immigrant men still hangs in the balance, pushing our population estimate of 623 million projection closer to the projections from Pew. Moreover, factoring in these demographics would tip our 13.9% estimate closer to Pew's 10.2% estimate.



Thus, it appears we are on the right track to continue the analysis, which is extremely important. The reason is, by 2067, the older generations of predominantly non-Muslims will have died out and the birthrate disparity will really begin to catch up with the native population. Observe:

6. Onward to the final generation of the 21st century (2092):


a. Muslim 
    132 million (Muslim est. for 2067) [120 million/2 for half female * d1]
           
            i. est. for new wave of Muslim migrant children at that time:
 +  25 million 
[(450,000 females *d1) for 25 more yrs]
total: 157 million Muslims
 
(plus impact of three generations, totaling 67.5 million men)


b. non-Muslim
     320.2 million (non-Muslim
est. for 2067) [427 million/2 for half female * d2]
               i. est. for new wave of non-Muslim migrant children at that time:
 +  26.2 million
[(700,000 females *d2) for 25 more yrs]
total: 346 million non-Muslims
(plus impact of three generations, totaling 105 million men)

157 million
of Europe's 503 million citizens are Muslim (31%)


6. Final conclusions:

Below is a quick overview of what this study has established.

2010: 5.9% Muslim population in Europe
<2% increase>
2016: 8% Muslim
<6% increase>
2042: 14% Muslim, + pending impact of 57m male migrants
<8% increase>
2067: 22% Muslim, + pending impact of 115m male migrants
<10% increase>
2092: 31% Muslim, + pending impact of 172m male migrants

I am certain that the gradual transformation has been very carefully calculated by the EU. They get their steady stream of cheap, unskilled immigrant labor, you kick the bucket before Muslim-majority Europe encroaches more personally than to just spur resentment. Likewise, the multiplying effect of the birthrate deficit and system's non-promotion of native births will not come to a head until you are gone. But if you have children and take an interest in their lives, you might want to pay attention. Because the future is going to be pretty bizarre for them unless we alter the course. Part of the alteration will have to involve finding an alternative to this labor-in-labor-out system, which appears to be built entirely around somebody's economic interest and at the expense of our childrens' futures.

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