How Islamic will Europe be in 50 years?

I. Current, Europe-residing population (excluding unregistered immigrants):

A. estimated population of Europe:
737 million
B. estimated Muslim population:
56 million
C. estimated non-Muslim population (A minus B)
681 million
D. birthrate in Europe:
i. around 2.1/per woman Muslim
ii. around 1.6/per woman non-Muslim
With ZERO IMMIGRATION GROWTH, excluding all current and future UNREGISTERED IMMIGRANTS:


2016 next generation children of their children
Muslim    56 million   (B)    58.8 million   [(B/2) * i]61.7 million
non-Muslim    681 million  (C)     544.8 million  [(C/2) * ii]   435.8 million


To summarize, Muslims living in the EU are currently just 7.5% of the population; in two generations, without any immigration, they would be 14.1% of Europe's population. Again, these numbers do not take immigration, or the unregistered population into consideration, which are a critical piece to understanding the demographic puzzle.

II. Calculating the impact of unregistered persons and immigration

When it comes to the unregistered population, we do not have any certain, verifiable numbers. One estimate from 2009 put the "undocumented" population at roughly .46% to .83% of the known population. Accordingly, one can estimate the total unregistered population in Europe at about 3.4 to 6.1 million people, within which any given number of persons enumerated could be Muslim. Unfortunately, we do not have any way of finding that number. Notably, the data was also collected before the European migrant crisis and its continuing impact, so the ratio of undocumented persons in the EU today may be drastically different from what a figure from 2009 tells us.

In 2015, some 4.7 million migrants from outside the European Union arrived in the European Union; among them, 1.3 million were able to claim asylum. It should be noted that the greatest number of migrants came from the following countries: Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Gambia and Pakistan, which are all Muslim-majority countries. Should the trend of migration from these states continue, perhaps we should expect the Muslim population in Europe to explode in the next few years. But wait: a large number of migrants claiming asylum from Syria, Iraq Afghanistan, etc. could have been non-Muslims too, including Christians escaping persecution under the growing threat of Islamic extremism in any of the aforementioned states. It is important to be aware of such contingencies before jumping into the data. This is especially the case because very little effort was made, amidst the chaos, to generate statistics differentiating Muslim migrants from non-Muslim migrants. What we do have a figure from a 2012 study, which concluded that 39% of those born outside of the EU who resettled in the EU were Muslim. Perhaps it is more insightful to use this figure than any figure from 2015, because the 2012 figure reflects on an observed migration norm that may continue outside of the circumstances that drove the country-by-country immigration figures of 2015.

On the other hand, while some have suggested that the migration influx of 2015 was a perfect-storm phenomena never to be seen again, outside of the number of migrants claiming asylum - nearly all affected by the situation on the ground in 2015 in Syria could have applied under Germany's human rights regime - so many people were trying to get into the EU who were not from Syria. Many of them tried to gain entry by boatload, and there is no reason to suspect that their efforts will subside. There are just too many factors that align, from the lure of the European social system and "Refugees welcome or you are a Nazi" socio-political indoctrination that dominates Europe, shaping who is elected to determine European policy. The other factor to consider is Africa's short distance from Europe, and lingering impressions about prosperity there. It is with these thoughts in mind that I propose subtracting the number of asylum seekers from the total migrants figure, to give us a clear idea of what sort of figures we should expect outside of a sudden increase in asylum-clemency due to a war like the one in Syria. Eliminating the asylum-seekers from our 4.7 million migrants figure, we have a remaining 3.4 million migrants. Assuming this is what the future looks like, and the 2012 Muslim-to-Non-Muslim breakdown remains consistent, we can expect 1.32 million Muslim migrants arriving in the EU per year.

The next object we must occupy ourselves with is what percentage of migrants is likely female. The importance of this determination should not go understated because (as you will see) it has long-term repercussions. Looking at the figures from 2015, only around 25% of the migrants coming to the EU in 2015 were female. Should we expect that trend to continue? Between 1945 and 1975, men accounted for nearly 70% of Europe's migrant labor force. But statistics from the United Nations (1, 2) confirm that nearly half of all migrants that came to Europe between 1990 and 2013 were women. The thing to bear in mind is that taking the lower rate will actually reduce our potential Muslim population figures, which is beneficial in terms of establishing the bare minimum of change we should expect.

If of the 1.32 million Muslim migrants entering the EU each year only 25% are female, we can expect 330 000 Muslim females to be arriving each year. Statistically, most of them will pair off with Muslim males and create Muslim children; of course, this is a rule to which there are exceptions, because some will die before bearing children or, even if it remains entirely uncommon in Islam, (1, 2) never marry or have children. Perhaps a fair way to account for this variable is to assume that, of the 990 000 million Muslim men entering the country per year, those who do not pair off with the 330 000 Muslim women arriving in that span are set aside as some potentially influential factor with an unknown influence. Doing so will help offset the unaccounted-for reality that some Muslim women will die before giving birth, or succumb to some other factor, although I would argue it is an overcompensation. In any case, here we see a second reason why our estimate for the future size of the Muslim population in Europe will actually be a low-end estimate, burying any notion that it could be a sensationalist inflation. Instead of being a sensationalist inflation, our final figure will actually be the opposite of such a thing.

We can put the remaining number of Muslim men after the 330 000 Muslim women per year pair off aside as an isolated variable - specially, in subscript parenthesis, as shown below ("x"). We just need to be cognizant of the fact that they are contributing to the population in some way, and it is no small number of people. Approximately 660 000 Muslim men fall into that category each year; over twenty five years, the figure grows to 16.5 million Muslim men.

III. Calculating the total number of Muslims, including Muslim immigrants, over time:

By next generation (2042):
    58.8 mil. estimated Muslims, pre-2016 Europe-born (see I.)
      8.2 mil. post-2016 immigrant Muslim fathers [330 000 females per yr. * 25 yrs.]
      8.2 mil. post-2016 immigrant Muslim mothers [330 000 males per yr. * 25 yrs.]
 + 17.3 mil. post-2016 children of above [(330 000 females * i) per yr. * 25 yrs.]
    92.5 million total Muslims in Europe
    (plus "x", the impact of 16.5 million Muslim men, and the undocumented)

When their children have children (2067):
     61.7 mil. estimated Muslims "children of pre-2016 Europe-born" (see I.)
     17.3 mil. post-2016 children of Muslim migrants [(330 000 females * i)  per yr. * 25 yrs.]
       8.2 mil. post-2042 immigrant Muslim fathers [330 000 females per yr. * 25 yrs.]
       8.2 mil. post-2042 immigrant Muslim mothers  [330 000 males per yr. * 25 yrs.]
+   17.3 mil. post-2042 children of above [(330 000 females * i) per yr. * 25 yrs.]
    112.7 million total Muslims in Europe
     (plus "x*2", the impact of 33 million Muslim men, and the undocumented)

IV. Non-Muslim immigration:

Now we need to adjust our total population figure to reflect the arrival of non-Muslim immigrants. Having established that  39% of Europe's immigrants are Muslim, that leaves us with the remaining 61% to work with. Assuming the same rate of immigration used in the previous calculations, of 3.4 million migrants, 61% of that figure leaves us with 2 million migrants. If we use the same figure of a migrant demographic that is 25% female, we are looking at 1 500 000 male non-Muslim migrants entering Europe per year and 500 000 female of that same background. Taking that remaining number of non-Muslim men after a pair off, we can put 1 million non-Muslim men aside as an isolated variable - specially, in subscript parenthesis, as shown below ("y") - and, over the course of 25 years, expect that impact to rise to that of 25 million. We can calculate that impact, and the impact of other non-Muslims, as follows:

V. Calculating the total number of non-Muslims, including non-Muslim immigrants, over time:

By next generation (2042):
     544.8 mil. estimated non-Muslims, pre-2016 Europe-born (see I.)
       12.5 mil. post-2016 immigrant non-Muslim fathers [500 000 females per yr. * 25 yrs.]
       12.5 mil. post-2016 immigrant non-Muslim mothers [500 000 males  per yr. * 25 yrs.]
 +    20.0 mil. post-2016 children of above [(500 000 females * ii)  per yr. * 25 yrs.]
     589.8 million total non-Muslims in Europe
     (plus "y", the impact of 25 million non-Muslim men, and the undocumented)

So, now we come to the granddaddy of all calculations: the population after fifty years' time where it is maintained that only 39% of migrants were Muslim. Again, that means 61% of 3.4 million migrants, arriving each year, were non-Muslim, giving us a total of 2 million non-Muslim migrants per year. Assuming the immigration rate is such and remains constant, the demographic figure, accounting for only non-Muslim immigration, could be as follows:

When their children have children (2067):
     435.8 mil. estimated Muslims "children of pre-2016 Europe-born" (see I.)
        20.0 mil. post-2016 children of non-Muslim migrants [(500 000 females* i) per yr. * 25yrs.]
       12.5 mil. post-2042 immigrant non-Muslim fathers [500 000 females per yr. * 25 yrs.]
       12.5 mil. post-2042 immigrant non-Muslim mothers  [500 000 males  per yr. * 25 yrs.]
 +    20.0 mil. post-2042 children of above [(500 000 females * ii)  per yr. * 25 yrs.]
     500.8 million total non-Muslims in Europe
      (plus "y*2", the impact of 50 million non-Muslim men, and the undocumented)

VI. Conclusion:

By next generation (twenty-five years' time, 2042):
AT LEAST 92.5 million of Europe's 681.8 million citizens are Muslim (13.5%)
(as before, this figure excludes the impact of millions of people. Not just 16.5 million Muslim men, but 25 million non-Muslim men, not to mention unregistered migrants)
When their children have children (fifty years' time, 2067):
AT LEAST 112.7 million of Europe's 613.5 million citizens are Muslim (18.3%)
(as before, this figure excludes the impact of millions of people. Not just two generations of 16.5 million Muslim men each, but two generations of 25 million non-Muslim men each, not to mention unregistered migrants)

VII. Comparison:

Here are the projections from a Pew Research Center study, dated 2010, which postulated that 10.2% of Europe's projected population of 696.3 million for 2050 would be Muslim.



In other words, their population projection is hauntingly similar to ours - and that, without taking into consideration the volume and intensity of immigration that was unheard of at the time of publication, in 2010. But there is more to the analysis, which is extremely important to bear in mind. The reason is, by 2067, the older generations of predominantly non-Muslims will have died out and the birthrate disparity will really begin to catch up with the native population. Observe:

VIII. Onward to the final generation of the 21st century (2092):

Muslim:
  112.7 mil. Muslims, our estimate for 2067 (see VI.)
      8.2 mil. post-2067 immigrant Muslim fathers [330 000 females per yr. * 25 yrs.]
      8.2 mil. post-2067 immigrant Muslim mothers [330 000 males per yr. * 25 yrs.]
+  17.3 mil. post-2067 children of above [(330 000 females * i)  per yr. * 25 yrs.]
  146.4 million Muslims
   (plus impact of three generations of unpaired Muslim men, totaling 49.5 million men, and the undocumented)
Non-Muslim:
    500.8 mil. non-Muslims, our estimate for 2067 (see VI.)
      12.5 mil. post-2067 immigrant non-Muslim fathers [500 000 females per yr. * 25 yrs.]
      12.5 mil. post-2067 immigrant non-Muslim mothers [500 000 males per yr. * 25 yrs.]
 +   20.0 mil. post-2067 children of above [(500 000 females * ii) per yr. * 25 yrs.]       
    545.8 million non-Muslims
     (plus impact of three generations of unpaired non-Muslim men, totaling 75 million men, and the undocumented)

AT LEAST 146.4 million of Europe's 692.2 million citizens are Muslim (21.1%)

That is eye-opening enough. But, for the sake of argument, let us take the Pew Research Center's own numbers for 2050 and run the same projections...

IX. Using Pew Research Center's own data:

2075 Muslim:
     70.8 mil. Muslims, Pew's estimate for 2050 (see VI.)
       8.2 mil. post-2050 immigrant Muslim fathers [330 000 females per yr. * 25 yrs.]
       8.2 mil. post-2050 immigrant Muslim mothers [330 000 males per yr. * 25 yrs.]
+   17.3 mil. post-2050 children of above [(330 000 females * i)  per yr. * 25 yrs.]
   104.5 million Muslims
     (plus impact of 16.5 million Muslim men and the undocumented)
2075 Non-Muslim:
    625.4 mil. non-Muslims, Pew's estimate for 2050 (see VI.)
      12.5 mil. post-2050 immigrant non-Muslim fathers [500 000 females per yr. * 25 yrs.]
      12.5 mil. post-2050 immigrant non-Muslim mothers [500 000 males  per yr. * 25 yrs.]
 +   20.0 mil. post-2050 children of above [(500 000 females * ii)  per yr. * 25 yrs.]       
    670.4 million non-Muslims
     (plus impact of 25 million non-Muslim men and the undocumented)


By 2075, running Pew data: 104.5 million of Europe's 774.9 million citizens are Muslim (13.4%)...
21st century: Final Muslim
   104.5 mil. Muslims, estimate from 2075 (see 2075 Muslim)
     17.3 mil. post-2050 children of Muslim migrants [(330 000 females * i) per yr. * 25 yrs.]
       8.2 mil. post-2075 immigrant Muslim fathers [330 000 females per yr. * 25 yrs.]
       8.2 mil. post-2075 immigrant Muslim mothers [330 000 males  per yr. * 25 yrs.]
+   17.3 mil. post-2075 children of above [(330 000 females * i) per yr. * 25 yrs.]
   155.5 million Muslims 
    (plus impact of two generations of unpaired Muslim men, totaling approx. 33 million men, and the undocumented)

21st century: Final Non-Muslim
     670.4 mil. non-Muslims estimate from 2075 (see 2075 Non-Muslim)
       20.0 mil. post-2050 children of non-Muslim migrants [(500 000 females * i) per yr. * 25 yrs.]
       12.5 mil. post-2075 immigrant non-Muslim fathers [500 000 females per yr. * 25 yrs.]
       12.5 mil. post-2075 immigrant non-Muslim mothers  [500 000 males  per yr. * 25 yrs.]
 +    20.0 mil. post-2075 children of above [(500 000 females * ii)  per yr. * 25 yrs.]       
     735.4 million non-Muslims
       (plus impact of two generations of unpaired non-Muslim men, totaling approx. 50 million men, and the undocumented)

By 2100, running Pew Research Center data, AT LEAST 155.5 million of Europe's 890.9 million citizens are Muslim (17.4%) by last generation of 21st century


X. Final test and conclusions:

To put our numbers to a test, let us analyze the immigration figures from 2010 and 2016 to establish a pattern of growth.

2010: 5.9 - 6 % Muslim population in Europe
2016: 7.5% Muslim

From the above, we see there was a 1.6% increase over the course of six years. Let us check to see how consistent that is with the estimates we have established.

2010: 5.9 - 6 % Muslim population in Europe
<in 6 years, a 1.6% increase>
2016: 7.5% Muslim population in Europe
<in 6 years, a 1.6% increase>
est. 2022: 9.1% Muslim population in Europe
<in 6 years, a 1.6% increase>
est. 2028: 10.7% Muslim population in Europe
<in 6 years, a 1.6% increase>
est. 2034: 12.3% Muslim population in Europe
<in 6 years, a 1.6% increase>
est. 2040: 13.9% Muslim population in Europe
<in 6 years, a 1.6% increase>
Our figure for 2042: 13.5% Muslim population in Europe

I think we have made our point.

Our immigration figures:

2042: 13.5% Muslim, + pending impact of unpaired male migrants or undocumented
2067: 18.3% Muslim, + pending impact of unpaired male migrants or undocumented
2092: 21.1% Muslim, + pending impact of unpaired male migrants or undocumented

Our immigration figures using Pew's 2050 estimate:

2075: 14.9% Muslim, + pending impact of unpaired male migrants or undocumented
2100: 17.4% Muslim, + pending impact of unpaired male migrants or undocumented

I am certain that the gradual transformation through 1.6% growth every six years, has been very carefully calculated by the EU. They get their steady stream of cheap, unskilled immigrant labor, you kick the bucket before Muslim-majority Europe encroaches more personally, and obviously, than to just spur generic resentment over the idea that the demographic scale is tipping. Likewise, I am sure our leaders understand that the multiplying effect of the birthrate deficit and system's non-promotion of native births - which we have just examined - will not come to a head until you are gone. But if you have children and take an interest in their lives, you might want to pay attention. Because the future is going to be pretty bizarre for them unless we alter the course. Part of the alteration will have to involve finding an alternative to this labor-in/labor-out system, which appears to be built entirely around somebody's economic interest, but not necessary the native population's.